The 2019 Hall of Fame ballot was officially announced on Monday. Twenty newcomers join the fifteen holdover candidates already up for BBWAA 
consideration. The writers have elected a record number of players (16) over the past five years, the ballot has thinned from its bloated apex but it’s still overly crowded with deserving candidates.
Every year around this time I release my initial set of predictions for this year’s Hall of Fame class. Last year, I had my best year yet coming in with an average error differential of 3.2% I also correctly predicted the class of four.
This year, I expect a class of three. Below is my initial forecast for this year’s class.
Mariano Rivera finished his career with the most saves and games finished in Major League history. He helped the Yankees win five titles, he sits atop the career ERA+ leaderboard (min 1000 IP), and he’s widely regarded as the best reliever of all time. His election is a certainty, the only question is whether or not he will be the first player to receive 100% of the vote. Probably not because no one gets 100%, but Griffey Jr. only missed by three votes, those voters might have been purged out of the electorate by now, Rivera has an outside chance of unanimity. Prediction: 98%
Roy Halladay will likely be remembered as the best pitcher of his generation, and unfortunately, for dying prematurely. A two-time Cy Young award winner who pitched a no-hitter in his first career playoff start. A durable innings eater who led his league in complete games seven times. Halladay finished his career with 203 wins and 2117 strikeouts, numbers that fall short of Hall standards. For those traditionalists who only look at basic counting stats, his candidacy falls short, still, I expect him to comfortably clear the 75% threshold needed for induction. Prediction 84%
Edgar Martinez finished his career with a slash line of .312/.418/.515, a line matched or bettered by only fourteen players in MLB history. After stalling initially on the ballot his candidacy has surged over the past two cycles bringing him on the cusp of election, last year reaching 70.4%. I think he continues to move forward and clears the line on his final try, joining Ruffing, Kiner, Rice, and Raines as the only players inducted on their last year of eligibly. Prediction: 80%
Mike Mussina has also surged forward over the past two election cycles but unlike Edgar he has plenty of time left, this is just his 6th year on the ballot. Mussina’s candidacy is a microcosm for many of the problems surrounding the Hall of Fame’s voting process. His lingering makes everyone look bad, the voters, the system, the Hall itself, it shouldn’t take this long, he should have been recognized right away, but the reality is, sometimes great players have to wait. He’ll have to wait at least one more year to write his speech. Prediction 69%
Roger Clemens, a seven-time Cy Young winner, would be in the Hall already if it wasn’t for the persistent questions of his steroid use. His former trainer testified that he personally injected Clemens with the illegal drugs, Clemens denied this under oath, was charged with perjury, and later found not guilty in court. However, enough evidence emerged to make him guilty in the public eye. Still, he’s inching forward, now comfortably over 50% I think this year he crosses 60, barely. Prediction 60%
Barry Bonds, the single-season and career home run leader, is obviously being kept out of the Hall for the same reason Clemens is, a direct link to steroid use. The writers have moved the bar on performance-enhancing drugs inducting several players suspected or even blatantly accused of using but have yet to enshrine anyone who has tested positive, been the subject of a federal investigation, or has admitted using. I’m not convinced either Bonds or Clemens will ever gain enough support to clear 75% but they will continue to inch forward this year and next. The year after that, 2021, will be each of their penultimate years on the ballot, with a weak class of newcomers, that’s their best chance. Prediction 59%
Curt Schilling was always going to be on the Blyleven path to enshrinement. A great career overshadowed by his more famous contemporaries. He was always going to get in after Halladay, that may sound silly considering Roy retired six years after he did, but Halladay passes the sniff test, Schilling like Blyleven before him does not. Unfortunately, for many, that’s what this comes down to. After Halladay gets in, and he deserves the honor, so this isn’t a knock, it will be tough to keep Mussina and Schilling out. I mean look at their numbers. Well, it would be tough if wasn’t for Schilling’s blatant racism, ignorance, and derogatory comments and tweets towards the press. Schilling has proudly aligned himself with right-wing conspiracy pushers and fake news purveyors. The writers understandably don’t want to reward or honor him. I get it, but that’s a mistake. There are millions of people, including several Hall of Famers, who view the world through the same prism Schilling does, that doesn’t make it just, but it is the reality. He’s being singled out and the writers are trying to make an example of him, they shouldn’t’ be in the business of doing that. Prediction 57%
Larry Walker surged forward last year but it was likely too little too late. Entering his 9th year on the ballot, Walker has been a victim of the logjam, the Coors field effect, and the yes the sniff test too. He’ll continue to move upward but he’s still a long way away from 75%. Prediction 45%
Omar Vizquel had an impressive debut last year coming in at 37%. The defensive icon will continue to move forward but his lack of separation from the middle of the pack will likely prevent him from ever reaching the magic number of 75%. Prediction 43%
Fred McGriff was a consistent, powerful hitter who just missed 500 career home runs. He’s entering his 10th and final year on the ballot, players traditionally receive a boost on their last year but even accounting for that, he has no chance here. He will fare significantly better with the Veterans Committee down the line. Prediction: 27%
Manny Ramirez was one of the best hitters of his generation, any generation really, but he was suspended twice for two different positive PED tests, plus he failed the initial survey test in 2003. Those positive tests will likely keep him out forever. Prediction 24%
Todd Helton is making is debut on the ballot this year and he’s the hardest guy to predict. He finished his career with a ridiculous slash line of .316/.414/.539. However, he did play half of his games at Coors field, which obviously boosted his production. The writers will hold that against him which is reasonable to a certain degree and completely unfair in another. The heart of sabermetrics, of the analytical movement over the past decade is to give a player credit for what he can control. Helton had no control over the elevation in Denver, the size of the outfield at Coors, or that the Rockies drafted him to begin with. If not Helton, if not Walker, then who? The writers are basically saying if you’re a position player for the Rockies you’re ineligible for the Hall of Fame, I think that’s a mistake. Prediction: 22%
Jeff Kent is still hanging around in ballot purgatory. Now in his 6th year on the ballot, Kent will continue to trend upwards but realistically 75% is an impossible goal for him. He’s not going to fall below 5% either, he’s stuck. Like McGriff, he’ll fare better with the VC down the line. Prediction: 18%
Scott Rolen debuted last year with 10.2% of the vote. If he can just hang on, improve slightly each of the next few election cycles, he’ll eventually be in a great position to surge like Raines and Edgar before him. The ballot will be a lot thinner starting in 2021, he’s one of the few that can take advantage of that. Prediction: 15%
Gary Sheffield is getting hosed here. He finished his career with 509 home runs, and with a career WAR over 60. He was one of the best and most consistent hitters of his generation. Yes, I realize he was part of the BALCO investigation but he was only connected to them for one summer, he’s since denounced Barry Bonds, who introduced him to the clinic. In my opinion, he’s being unfairly lumped in with habitual users like Ramirez, Bonds, and McGwire. I don’t think that was him, could be, maybe, but I suspect he might just be the one telling the truth here. Prediction: 12%
Andy Pettitte helped the Yankees win five World Series championships. He was a consistent, durable pitcher, who finished his career with 256 wins and 2448 strikeouts. However, he was named in the Mitchell Report for purchasing HGH, he later admitted to using the substance. HGH is not a steroid but it is banned and many writers will lump them in together. Prediction 12%
Billy Wagner was as dominant as anyone on an inning-to-inning basis but his career was short, just 903 innings pitched. If elected that would be the fewest of anyone in the Hall of Fame. Prediction: 11%
Andruw Jones was an elite defender with big power at the plate. His WAR7 actually clears the JAWS standard but his career total falls a bit short. Jones debuted last year with 7.3% of the vote, he’ll hang around for a while. Prediction 8%
Sammy Sosa is entering his 7th year on the ballot, he keeps hanging on but realistically he has no chance. That’s a weird thing to say about someone with 609 career home runs but that’s the climate we’re in right now. Prediction 7%
Lance Berkman is a genuine borderline guy, his career OPS+ ranks in the top 50 all time. He had a short career by Hall of Fame standards though, amassing just 7814 plate appearances. He, unfortunately, shares some of the same political views as Curt Schilling, if you hold that against Schilling, why not Berkman too? See the problem here. He deserves a serious look but he’ll likely be one and done. Prediction: 3.5%
Roy Oswalt was one of the best starting pitchers of his generation but his lack of longevity and hardware will likely cause him to fall off the ballot right away. Prediction 2%
Michael Young was a 7-time All-Star, he won a batting title, and finished his career with a batting average of .300. He’ll get some votes but his time on the ballot will be short-lived. Prediction 1.5%
The rest of the ballot features lots of good players, a former MVP, a few postseason studs, and some franchise icons but none of them are likely to clear 1%.
Voting results will be revealed on January 22nd. I’ll update these predictions regularly as ballots get added to the tracker.
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